Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Become 'Another Brexit', Experts Alert

Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."